Prediction of Ryuki Matsuda vs Hikaru Shiraishi at Playford Challenger 11-25-25

• In terms of second serve points won over the past six months, Ryuki Matsuda holds a slight edge at 45.47%, compared to Hikaru Shiraishi’s 40.95%. Could this give Matsuda an advantage? Yes, as there’s a high correlation with match outcomes.
• When returning second serves, Shiraishi fares better, securing 47.95% of points, while Matsuda achieves 45.19%. Does this suggest Shiraishi might dominate return games? Likely, as return performance is critical in head-to-head predictions.
• Matsuda has an advantage in first serve returns, winning 30.12% of points contrasted with Shiraishi’s 27.80%.
• Under pressure, Matsuda has been more effective, saving 53.40% of breakpoints, compared to Shiraishi’s 50.00%.
• Over the last year, Shiraishi’s overall match win percentage stands at 66.67%, which is significantly higher than Matsuda’s 48.39%.
• Both players excel on hard courts with an identical career win rate of 67%. Notably, they both struggle on indoor hard courts with win rates below 30%.
• Shiraishi outshines Matsuda in Futures/Satellites/ITF $10K events, winning 71.43% of matches compared to Matsuda’s 60.61%.
• In direct head-to-head encounters, Shiraishi leads 2-1, having won 5 out of 7 sets against Matsuda.
• Matsuda won their most recent match at M 15 Nakhon Si Thammarat on a hard court, potentially a sign of current form.
• For deciding sets, Shiraishi is stronger, winning 67% of such matches, whereas Matsuda achieves this 52% of the time.
• Shiraishi shows better break point conversion at 34.30%, whereas Matsuda converts 30.77% of opportunities.

Editorial Prediction (November 25, 2025, UTC):

In recent performances, Ryuki Matsuda has shown a slight advantage on second serve points won and first serve returns. This, combined with his recent victory over Hikaru Shiraishi, suggests an edge in current form.

However, Shiraishi’s overall performance over the past year, higher win rate in decisive moments, and greater proficiency in converting break points lean the predictions in his favor.

Considering all the factors, including his lead in their head-to-head matchups, Hikaru Shiraishi is predicted to be the more likely winner in this upcoming match.